By: ICN Bureau
Last updated : July 15, 2026 5:00 pm
Outlook 2026: EBITDA before special items expected to be between €6.9 billion and €7.7 billion (previously: €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion)
German chemical giant BASF has published its preliminary financial figures for Q2 2026, revealing a 16% revenue surge to €17.2 billion compared to €14.8 billion in Q2 2025. This performance outpaced market expectations, as average analyst predictions compiled by Vara Research had anticipated sales to land at €16.5 billion.
EBITDA before special items of BASF Group amounted to an expected €2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2026 and was thus considerably above the level of the analyst consensus for the second quarter of 2026 (Vara: €2.1 billion) and considerably above the prior-year quarter figure (Q2 2025: €1.6 billion).
Driven by broad earnings growth across all segments except Surface Technologies, BASF Group's EBITDA before special items rose sharply year-over-year. While Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Agricultural Solutions substantially outperformed expectations—and Nutrition & Care achieved a modest beat—the Chemicals and Surface Technologies divisions finished significantly below market projections.
EBITDA of BASF Group amounted to an expected €2.0 billion in the second quarter of 2026, on the level of the average analyst estimates (Vara: €2.0 billion) and considerably above the figure for the prior-year period (Q2 2025: €1.3 billion). Special items in EBITDA primarily resulted from transformation costs that were mainly incurred as part of the cost savings programs currently being driven forward as well as the introduction of new ERP systems.
BASF Group’s EBIT before special items amounted to an expected €1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, considerably above the analyst consensus (Vara: €1.1 billion) and considerably above the figure for the prior-year quarter (Q2 2025: €0.7 billion).
Net income reached an expected €4.1 billion, significantly above average analyst estimates for the second quarter of 2026 (Vara: €2.4 billion) and far exceeding the figure in the prior-year quarter (Q2 2025: €79 million). This was mainly due to the disposal gain in the amount of €3.9 billion before taxes from the coatings transaction with Carlyle, which was closed on June 30, 2026. The expected tax expense associated with the transaction is a mid-triple-digit million-euro amount.
The BASF Group’s free cash flow is likely to amount to minus €0.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2025: plus €0.5 billion), mainly due to higher capital tied up as a result of higher raw material prices. This is based on expected cash flows from operating activities of €0.5 billion (Q2 2025: €1.6 billion), minus expected payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets in the amount of €0.7 billion (Q2 2025: €1.1 billion).
Outlook for the full-year 2026
In light of the better-than-expected business development, BASF is increasing its full-year 2026 outlook for EBITDA before special items. The company now anticipates EBITDA before special items of between €6.9 billion and €7.7 billion in 2026 (previously: €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion; analyst consensus 2026: €7.3 billion; full year 2025: €6.6 billion). The forecasted earnings range remains unchanged due to the continuing geopolitical uncertainties. For free cash flow, BASF continues to expect a figure of between €1.5 billion and €2.3 billion in 2026 (average analyst estimates for 2026: €2.3 billion; full year 2025: €1.3 billion); this is due, among other reasons, to higher capital tied up as a result of higher raw material prices.
This outlook is based on the following adjusted assumptions regarding the global economic environment in 2026 (previous assumptions from the BASF Report 2025 in parentheses):
- Growth in gross domestic product: 2.5% (2.7%)
- Growth in industrial production: 2.0% (2.3%)
- Growth in chemical production: 1.8% (2.4%)
- Average annual euro/dollar exchange rate of $1.17 per euro ($1.20 per euro)
- Average annual oil price (Brent crude) of $80 per barrel ($65 per barrel)
The development of the global economy and regional chemical markets in the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain. It depends to a considerable degree on the outcome of the negotiations between the United States and Iran, particularly with regard to the access to and use of the Strait of Hormuz for the transport of energy and petrochemical feedstocks from the Middle East. A prolonged closure of this trade route would weigh significantly on economic activity. Conversely, a rapid agreement on a reliable framework arrangement would provide additional momentum for economic growth.