Last updated : March 06, 2026 10:51 am
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have already forced rerouting, disrupting phosphate fertilizers and inputs from Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco
The escalating Middle East conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has thrust the global fertilizer trade into turmoil, with critical maritime chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—under threat. For India, the world's second largest fertilizer consumer and a heavily import-dependent nation, this spells immediate risks to availability, soaring prices, and long-term threats to food security. As spring planting ramps up in the Northern Hemisphere and India's Rabi harvest concludes while Kharif preparations begin, any prolonged disruption could ripple through agricultural supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz: Under Siege
Iran's strategic control over the narrow Strait of Hormuz has become a flashpoint. An estimated 25 to 35 percent of globally traded ammonia and urea—key nitrogen fertilizers—moves through this waterway. The Middle East is the world's largest urea exporter, shipping around 20 million tonnes per year, accounting for roughly 35 percent of global seaborne trade, with Iran contributing about a quarter of regional supply.
Middle Eastern producers have already suspended offers amid shipping complications. Vessels are avoiding the strait or facing massive delays, insurance withdrawals, and rerouting. A prolonged blockade or disruption would tighten global supplies precisely when demand peaks for spring applications. The impact extends beyond India. The Middle East accounted for 28 percent of US urea imports in 2025. Disruptions here could crunch US supplies and fuel upward price volatility, affecting American farmers during peak planting season.
Heavy reliance on the Persian Gulf India imports a significant portion of its fertilizers through the Persian Gulf, making the Hormuz route vital for national food security. The country sources:
* Urea, Ammonium sulphate, Monoammonium phosphate (MAP), Potash, Rock phosphate, Sulphur, Ammonia, and Phosphoric Acid from the UAE
* Urea, Sulphur, Ammonia, and Natural Gas from Qatar
* Sulphur from Kuwait
* Urea, Sulphur, and Ammonia from Bahrain
* Urea, DAP, NP, NPK complex fertilizers, Sulphur, and Ammonia from Saudi Arabia
Overall, India imports roughly 20-25 percent of its total fertilizers from Arabian Gulf countries, a region serving as the primary hub for urea, sulphur, and ammonia. Most, if not all, of these shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. India’s import dependency varies by fertilizer type. As per 2024–‘25 estimates,
* Urea: Approximately 46 percent from Oman alone; Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also key suppliers.
* DAP (Diammonium Phosphate): Gulf countries dominate, with Oman at ~39.5 percent (25.76 lakh MT), Qatar ~14.7 percent (9.56 lakh MT), UAE ~10.7 percent (6.99 lakh MT), and Saudi Arabia ~8.0 percent (5.24 lakh MT). Over 60 percent of India's DAP requirement is imported, with a major share from this region.
* Potash (MOP): Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 42 percent of India's imports.
In 2025, Oman was a top DAP supplier, while Saudi Arabia and Oman led in urea. Key 2024-25 suppliers include Oman (DAP/Urea), Saudi Arabia (DAP/MOP), Qatar (DAP/Urea), and UAE (DAP).
Red Sea Disruptions Compound the Crisis
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have already forced rerouting, disrupting phosphate fertilizers and inputs from Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco. These alternative routes become critical when Hormuz faces issues, but Houthi blockades have sunk fertilizer-laden ships in the past and continue to threaten vessels. This dualchokepoint crisis (Hormuz and Red Sea/Suez) amplifies delays and costs for India.
Strategic Shifts and Recent Trends
India has intensified reliance on the Gulf to offset risks from China, which imposed import restrictions on DAP and specialty fertilizers. In FY25, DAP imports from Saudi Arabia rose 17 percent to 1.9 million tonnes. A landmark deal with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden will supply 3.1 million metric tonnes of DAP annually starting FY26 (with a five-year extension option), underscoring deeper ties.
The Gulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman) remains the backbone for urea, sulphur, and ammonia. Overall India-GCC trade stands at approximately $160 billion, with the Gulf accounting for nearly 24 percent of India's total trade. Fertilizer imports in FY26 are on track for a record $18 billion, with urea up ~61 percent to 9 million MT and DAP up ~52 percent to 7 million MT, driven by strong monsoon demand.
Seasonal and Broader Economic Pressures
India's cropping calendar heightens vulnerability. The Kharif season (sown JuneJuly, harvested September-October) relies on rain-fed crops like rice, maize, and soy. The Rabi season (sown October-November/December, harvested March- April) needs irrigation for wheat, mustard, and gram. March 2026 marks Rabi harvest amid disruptions, with Kharif sowing looming—any price spike or shortage could hit farmers hard.
Beyond fertilizers, India imports ~16 million tonnes of edible oil annually (20 percent sunflower from Russia, Ukraine, Argentina), facing reroute delays. LNG, Petrochemical, rubber, cement, and steel sectors will see higher input costs from crude derivatives and transport bottlenecks.
Outlook: Threats to Agricultural Stability
The Middle East peace disruption endangers India's fertilizer access at a pivotal moment. Availability is strained, prices are rising (urea already volatile globally), and prolonged issues could threaten yields, inflate subsidy burdens (already massive), and undermine food security for 1.4 billion people. India's government is monitoring stocks and may accelerate domestic production or diversify sources (e.g., more from Russia, North Africa, or long-term contracts elsewhere). However, the Gulf's centrality—bolstered by recent strategic deals—means short-term alternatives are limited.
As tensions persist, the fertilizer crisis underscores a harsh reality: geopolitical flashpoints in distant waters can directly sow seeds of instability in India's fields. Swift diplomatic efforts, supply chain resilience, and investment in indigenous capacity will be essential to safeguard the nation's agricultural future.
(Mr. Nair is a Former Secretary to Chief Minister and Chairperson, Public Sector Restructuring & Audit Board, Government of Kerala.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author