ExxonMobil boosts 2030 outlook, projects $25 billion in earnings growth without raising spending

The growth is driven by stronger Permian output, technology advancements, improved capital efficiency, structural cost reductions, and portfolio optimization

ExxonMobil has sharply raised its financial targets, projecting $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030, a $5 billion increase in both metrics compared with its previous plan.

The company highlighted that these gains come “with no increase in capital spending,” underscoring its execution discipline and strategic capital allocation.

Earnings are now expected to grow 13% annually through 2030, supported by double-digit cash flow growth and even higher per-share growth fueled by ongoing share repurchases. Over the next five years, ExxonMobil anticipates $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow at $65 real Brent, with return on capital employed exceeding 17% by 2030.

The company, currently the second-largest dividend payer in the S&P 500, has raised its annual dividend for 43 consecutive years—a distinction held by fewer than 5% of S&P 500 companies. ExxonMobil remains on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares this year, with plans to maintain this pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.

ExxonMobil expects total Upstream production to reach 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, with advantaged assets contributing 65% of total volumes.

Building on last year’s plan, the company now forecasts more than $14 billion in Upstream earnings growth at constant prices vs. 2024, an increase of $5 billion versus prior guidance.

The growth is driven by stronger Permian output, technology advancements, improved capital efficiency, structural cost reductions, and portfolio optimization. Unit earnings, excluding identified items, which have doubled since 2019, are projected to exceed $15 per barrel by 2030, three times 2019 levels.

ExxonMobil emphasized that “the company’s advantaged assets—Permian, Guyana, and LNG—remain central to this growth.” Production from these assets is expected to reach nearly 3.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, representing roughly 65% of total volumes.

In the Permian Basin, ExxonMobil boasts “the largest and highest-quality inventory position in the industry, providing a runway of growth well into the 2030s.” Proprietary technologies, integration benefits from the Pioneer acquisition, and scale efficiencies are “delivering industry-leading performance.”

The company is working with a deep pipeline of unique, proprietary technologies aimed at doubling resource recovery, with early results already showing ~20% improvement from its lightweight proppant technology. Pioneer synergies are now expected to deliver $4 billion annually, double initial estimates.

Due to these technology and efficiency gains, ExxonMobil expects to double Permian production by 2030 vs 2024 to roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels higher than prior plans.