While the street seems concerned about rising input prices and its likely impact on UPL’s EBITDA margin, ICICI Securities notes the company has maintained the margin in a narrow band of 17.5-20.4% over the relatively long period from FY09 to FY21E.

UPL has multiple levers to sustain the margin at the said level, the levers being: selective price hikes and tweaking of trade margins, improvement in revenue mix and cost-saving initiatives. Besides, while its global market share stands at ~10%, it is the leader in its key markets such as India, Chile, Mexico and Columbia, which ICICI Securities believes indicates strong pricing power.

UPL will continue to benefit from synergy benefits as well as operating leverage in FY22E-FY23E too. 

EBITDA margin in a narrow range over FY09-FY21E: Despite volatility in prices of crude oil and crude oil derivatives, UPL has maintained its EBITDA margin in a narrow range of 17.5-20.4% over FY09-FY21E. While input prices and other costs (e.g. port handling expenses) are rising, ICICI Securities models the company to maintain its EBITDA margin at ~19.7% over FY22E-FY23E.

Multiple levers to maintain EBITDA margin at existing levels: Historically, UPL has maintained its margins via selective price hikes, improvement in revenue mix, change in geographic mix and cost-saving initiatives. In FY22E, it will also benefit from synergy and operating leverage.

Synergy benefits on track as per plan: Cost synergy benefits worth US$109mn were achieved in FY20 and an additional US$79mn in 9MFY21. Revenue synergy benefits worth US$240mn were reaped in FY20 followed by another US$114mn in 9MFY21. UPL is on track to achieve its targeted synergy benefits in FY21E-FY22E.

Market leadership in key geographies: While the company has a global market share of 10%, it is the leader in its key markets such as India, Mexico, Columbia and Chile, where it enjoys stronger pricing power. Its business in other markets such as Africa and China is also on a growth path. Higher growth in these geographies will lead to the benefits of operating leverage.

Guidance maintained: UPL has maintained its guidance of 6-8% revenue growth and 10-12% EBITDA growth in FY21. Cost-saving measures initiated post-lockdown and synergy benefits are leading to expansion in EBITDA margin. Company also expects net working capital days and net debt to decline by FY21-end.