Chemical
BASF flags weaker earnings as currency headwinds bite, cash flow beats expectations
EBITDA before special items is forecast at €6.6 billion, below both analyst consensus and BASF’s own guidance range
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By ICN Bureau | January 23, 2026
Chemicals giant BASF expects full-year 2025 sales of €59.7 billion, down from €61.4 billion in 2024, as negative currency effects and slightly lower prices offset modest volume growth. The figure broadly matches analyst expectations.
Earnings are set to fall more sharply. EBITDA before special items is forecast at €6.6 billion, below both analyst consensus and BASF’s own guidance range, after lower margins and adverse currency movements weighed on performance. The result compares with €7.2 billion a year earlier.
Despite softer operating earnings, BASF delivered a strong cash flow performance. Free cash flow is expected to reach €1.3 billion in 2025, comfortably exceeding market forecasts and the company’s guidance. The improvement was driven largely by sharply lower capital expenditure. Operating cash flow, however, is expected to decline to €5.6 billion, reflecting higher precious metal trading positions amid rising prices, partly offset by a significant dividend from Wintershall Dea.
EBIT is forecast at €1.6 billion, down from €1.8 billion in 2024 and well below analyst expectations. The decline reflects substantially higher restructuring costs as BASF accelerates its restructuring program. These charges were partly offset by gains from special items, including the sale of its decorative paints business to Sherwin-Williams. Overall, special items are expected to reduce EBIT by €1.3 billion in 2025.
Net income tells a brighter story. BASF expects profit of €1.6 billion for the year, beating both analyst forecasts and the prior year’s result. The improvement is mainly driven by stronger earnings contributions from its stake in Wintershall Dea.
