India could save nearly Rs. 28,540 crore in foreign exchange every year and unlock more than Rs. 1 lakh crore in domestic investments if it swiftly imposes anti-dumping duties on a range of products currently under government review, according to a new report.
The report, titled “Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India”, was released by the C-DEP Research and Center for WTO Studies under the Ministry of Commerce and presented by Pritam Banerjee, Head of the Center for WTO Studies, at a high-level industry roundtable attended by leaders from India’s chemicals, polymers, textiles and manufacturing sectors.
Industry executives at the event warned that aggressive dumping — particularly from China — is eroding India’s industrial base, hurting MSMEs, and accelerating import dependence across key sectors. The participating domestic manufacturers together represent more than ₹5 lakh crore in turnover.
Anti-dumping duties are WTO-compliant trade remedies used globally to protect domestic industries from predatory pricing by foreign exporters selling products below their home-market prices to wipe out local competition.
The report estimates that economic losses from dumped imports across 33 products currently stand at nearly Rs. 1.54 lakh crore and could surge to Rs. 2.70 lakh crore by 2030 if corrective measures are delayed. Job losses are also projected to climb sharply from around 24,000 at present to as high as 42,000 over the same period.
In a direct challenge to arguments that anti-dumping duties fuel inflation, the report says the impact on consumer prices is “immeasurably low.” An analysis of 56 Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) cases where duties were recommended but never implemented found the median effect on final consumer prices would have been just 0.023%.
Even for 21 products currently awaiting duty imposition, the inflationary impact remains below 0.01 percentage points, the report said, even under a conservative 50% cost pass-through assumption.
The findings argue that anti-dumping duties restore fair competition without significantly affecting consumers, while offering critical protection to domestic producers and MSMEs.
The report paints a stark picture of the fallout from delayed action. Sustained dumped imports have already triggered shutdowns in sectors including sublimation-transfer paper, phone back covers, DASDA, and nylon filament yarn, severely damaging MSMEs and domestic production capacities.
By contrast, sectors where anti-dumping duties were imposed — such as cable ties, ceramic ware, and vacuum flasks — have seen MSMEs sustain operations, expand production, and attract fresh investments.
The study also rejects criticism that India overuses anti-dumping measures. It notes that countries such as the United States deploy anti-dumping duties on a much larger scale and at far higher rates. While India’s average duty duration stands at 6.97 years, the global average is 11.19 years. Some countries, including the US and China, have imposed duties as high as 632%.
India’s anti-dumping framework has remained fully aligned with WTO norms, with the report noting that India’s recommendations have consistently held up in WTO disputes.
The report calls for immediate implementation of pending DGTR-recommended duties, warning that continued delays are weakening the rupee, draining foreign exchange reserves, and undermining India’s manufacturing ambitions.
“Timely imposition of anti-dumping duties will also ensure adequate investments in domestic capacities today, prevent a large demand-supply gap by 2030, reduce India’s dependence on imported goods, strengthen industrial resilience, and contribute to fulfilling the Prime Minister’s vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047,” the report said.
