Johnson Matthey has warned that geopolitical instability and accelerating electric vehicle adoption could reshape global demand for platinum group metals (PGMs). This is even as industrial consumption remains resilient heading into 2026.
The company’s latest PGM Market Report, released ahead of London Platinum & Palladium Market Week, says platinum, ruthenium and iridium are all expected to remain in supply deficit this year, extending a period of tight market conditions that helped drive sharp price rallies across the sector in 2025. Platinum hit a record high in January 2026.
Johnson Matthey said robust industrial demand and constrained mine output will keep the platinum market undersupplied for a fourth consecutive year, despite an anticipated 8% drop in overall demand.
“PGM consumption in industrial applications is forecast to be robust this year, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Data centre construction will be positive for platinum and ruthenium, which are critical for the magnetic layers used to store data on hard disks. This year should also see the first commercial-scale use of iridium in proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis for green hydrogen.
“Use of platinum-rhodium alloys in glass making should rise, with growing investment in specialist grades of e-glass fibre. And we expect firm demand from the chemicals industry for all the PGMs, except ruthenium,” said Rupen Raithatha, Market Research Director at Johnson Matthey.
The report highlights mounting pressure on global supply chains, with lower mine shipments from South Africa and Russia expected to outweigh gains from recovering automotive recycling activity.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of battery electric vehicle production is beginning to erode platinum demand in autocatalysts, while jewellery and investment demand are expected to weaken sharply after a strong 2025.
Palladium, which has been in persistent deficit since 2012, could swing into a small surplus in 2026 as demand weakens and recycling volumes recover.
Johnson Matthey forecasts a 9% drop in palladium demand, citing softer gasoline vehicle production and negative ETF investment flows during the first quarter. Russian mine production is also projected to fall to its lowest level in at least 20 years.
Rhodium could also move into surplus as recycling rebounds, with recoveries from automotive scrap expected to hit a four-year high.
Despite a forecast 6% decline in ruthenium demand, Johnson Matthey said the market will remain in significant deficit, supported by surging demand from expanding data centre infrastructure.
Iridium demand is also expected to edge higher as two major green hydrogen projects come online in Europe, leaving the market in a modest deficit.
Still, the company cautioned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could threaten industrial demand in key sectors.
“There is some downside risk to demand, especially in the chemicals sector. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has put petrochemical supply chains under pressure, and some Asian chemical producers have had to reduce operating rates or close their plants for maintenance.
"We’re also keeping a close eye on developments in the auto market; sales of new and used electric cars accelerated in March and if this trend continues, it could reduce PGM demand,” Raithatha said.
The report also points to regulatory changes in the European Union and the United States that are expected to prolong the lifespan of autocatalysts in internal combustion engine vehicles, particularly in low-emission hybrid technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and range-extended electric vehicles.
