Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is on track for a sharp climb, with Shell forecasting consumption will surge to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050 — about a 65% jump from 2025 levels — as governments lean on gas for energy security and flexibility.
The projection, published in Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026, comes against a volatile backdrop for global energy markets. In 2025, LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes and was expected to keep rising into 2026, but fresh geopolitical disruption has rattled supply chains.
Severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has cut off roughly one-fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict began, tightening markets, lifting spot prices, and hitting parts of Asia particularly hard.
Despite the shock, the global system has not seized up. New liquefaction capacity in North America, stronger output from existing facilities, and weaker Asian import demand have helped offset the Middle East shortfall.
If shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz normalize this summer, total LNG trade in 2026 could end up broadly flat compared with last year — before resuming growth in 2027.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”
Shell expects around 180 million tonnes of new annual LNG supply to hit the market by 2030, potentially easing prices and unlocking demand in new regions.
But the pace of growth will hinge on whether importing countries can build enough infrastructure — from regasification terminals to pipeline networks — particularly across South and Southeast Asia.
Those regions are projected to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050, driven by rising energy demand and efforts to replace higher-emission coal use. Meanwhile, in mature markets such as Japan, data centres are emerging as an unexpected new driver of electricity demand.
New demand segments are also accelerating. LNG bunkering is forecast to increase seven-fold to 27 million tonnes by 2035 — exceeding India’s LNG imports last year.
In Europe, LNG is expected to remain a critical balancing fuel, supporting energy security as domestic gas production declines and renewables expand.
To meet rising demand, Shell warns the industry will require major new investment, including roughly 200 million tonnes per year of additional LNG supply capacity through the 2030s and 2040s beyond projects already underway.
Even amid conflict-driven disruption, LNG pricing has remained far below the extremes seen in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the peak of the Middle East crisis, Asian spot prices briefly climbed above $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), but the market avoided the extreme volatility of previous shocks.
With long-term contracts now covering around two-thirds of global trade, the average LNG price paid in May stood at $11–12 per MMBtu, compared with $7–11 in January before the conflict began.
Shell’s LNG Outlook, now marking its 10th year, highlights how dramatically the market has expanded since 2017:
* Global LNG trade has risen about 60%, from 264 million to 422 million tonnes.
* China’s LNG imports have surged by roughly 250%.
* The number of LNG-importing countries has grown from 36 to 49.
* The global LNG-fuelled shipping fleet has expanded from 77 vessels to more than 800.
From a niche fuel to a cornerstone of global energy security, LNG’s trajectory shows no signs of slowing — even as geopolitics continues to test the system’s resilience.
